Tilt-a-Whirl
The 2026 extreme pitch control teams
I haven’t been writing recently as I’ve been diving into a larger project that will be ready soon, hopefully before the World Cup. That said, I still want to keep on the pulse of MLS as the league keeps churning. We just finished a wacky Wednesday, showing that there is little day to day predictability but plenty of fun large trends to dive into.
In particular, I want to get a little beyond xGD and explore what measures of pitch control have to say about teams. The most popular measure is Field Tilt, which can be calculated a variety of different ways. My preferred way is to divide the number of touches a team has in the final third by the total touches in play for the game - both team and opponent combined. This way, the number can be effectively compared across teams over a season when certain teams try to play as little soccer as possible (looking at you, 2021 Red Bulls).
Another useful measure is attacking efficiency, in this case measured by the number of attacking third passes per xG created. Teams who score higher on this metric require more passes to create the kind of chances that lead to goals. Teams with lower numbers are much quicker to create those chances.
The inverse relationship between field tilt and efficiency is pretty strong. The more a team has the ball in their opponent’s third, the harder it is to create chances. This is likely because a defending team can get more bodies back and prevent transitions and easy shots. We see this relationship across MLS, USL, and MLS Next Pro. (Weirdly, we do not see this relationship in NWSL, a topic for further discussion down the line.)
The Toothless Crew
This relationship is always most interesting at the extremes. Nancy’s Columbus Crew were an extreme possession team, always being at or near the top of the league in possession and in field tilt. In 2025, they were at their most tilted - 16.3% of the game’s touches were by Columbus Crew in their opponents third, the most in MLS since 2013. Now, with that came a certain inefficiency in attack. They needed 98.95 final third passes to generate a single xG. Not great, but with the amount of possession they did have it was survivable, and in line with what such a dominant team “should” be doing based on the established relationship between the two metrics.
In large part the Crew are worse in 2026 because they have lost the ability to generate chances from dominance. Whereas Nancy’s teams did have ways to create something facing a condensed defensive block (usually brilliance from Cucho or runs from deep that the defense couldn’t anticipate), this Crew team doesn’t have that mojo. They’ve dropped from 16.3% final third tilt to 14.5%, and have needed over 122 final third passes to generate a single xG. The combination of being less dominant and less capable of creating has greatly limited their attacking. In fact, that efficiency mark of 122.7 final third passes per xG would be worst in MLS since 2013, if not for the existence of Sporting KC this season.
At the same time it’s not all doom and gloom for Rydstrom’s Crew. This year’s team has been even better at preventing opposition field tilt (7.31% for the teams they play) and made significant strides defensively (opponent attacking efficiency going from 55.6 final third passes per xG to 71.8). The relationist manager has managed to fix some of the critical defensive inefficiencies that always plagued Nancy’s sides.
The result is that the Crew are surviving in the East and on track for the playoffs, even while they aren’t lighting up the scoreboard like they used to. That should be enough for Rydstrom to get enough time to implement his system, for good or ill.
The Paper Thin Defenses
Just like on offense, pitch control is related to defensive stability. The more a team stays in their opponents third, the quicker they give up chances on the other end. Again, this is intuitive; attacking teams need to commit more players up the field and their rest defense is likely to face numerical disadvantages when their opponents get the opportunity to break. Teams that play attractive soccer and control the game can often get brutalized on the back end.
That’s what is happening to San Diego and the New York Red Bulls. Both teams are playing exciting, aggressive brands of soccer. (San Diego is trying out a groundbreaking approach in reducing the number of men they can play with just to keep it even). Neither seem to have any clue about how to limit opposing chances.
That means that regardless of the attacking play, they’re both far lower on the xGD table than the general perception of their ability. The Red Bulls have allowed 20.5 xG against this season, the third worst in the league. On average their opponents take just 37.6 final third passes to generate 1 xG against them. That’s just over half as many as it takes for Orlando’s opponents, and Orlando is a terrible team. San Diego fares a little better; it takes opponents 41.2 final third passes to generate an xG, and their opponent’s tilt is lower than the Red Bulls at 7.5% to 8.7%. Still, they find themselves at -4.0 xGD on a season where they were expected to contend for titles.
Both Mikey Varas and Michael Bradley have a very tough task. How do you maintain your identity as a front foot possession dominant team while being savvy enough to control the game and prevent your opponents from gaining a foothold? If they can’t figure it out their games will be exciting, but also more likely to lead to losses than wins.
Then There’s Vancouver
Enough has been written about Vancouver, who are far and away the best team in the league this season. Still, it’s worth noting how statistically remarkable they are. They have completely inverted the relationship between pitch control and offensive/defensive efficiency. They are among the most dominant control wise with 14.56% attacking tilt and 7.8% tilt for their opponents. On offense, they need just 49.3 final third passes per xG, and their opponents need 114.43.
Part of this feels unsustainable simply because it’s never been done before. There are signs that it could continue - Vancouver leads the league in set piece xG, which reliably bumps up their attacking efficiency scores. Still, it’s unprecedented and there has to be a point where the machine starts to break down.
If it doesn’t, Vancouver will end 2026 as - at least statistically - the best team of all time.