The MLS MVP Race 5 Games In

No sample too small

Last year, I introduced a simple way of tracking the MVP race that tried to balance the perceived realities of the game (specifically goals and assists, and the impact that has on voters) as well as the underlying metrics of the game. The whole article is worth a read, but essentially it breaks down as follows:

• 95th %ile or better performance by G+ in a game: 1 MVP point

• First goal of the game - 2 MVP points

• All other subsequent goals - 1 MVP point

• Assist - 1 MVP point.

This strikes the balance between awarding the things that matter for points on the board - goals and assists - and maintaining the value of the underlying performances that bring them. It also catches some of the work being done by midfielders and defenders, who deserve some attention as well.

Last season, Lionel Messi comfortably led the table with a whopping 106 MVP points. It goes without saying that’s the highest performing season of all time, ahead of Carlos Vela’s 2019 season with 91. For Messi, that worked out to 2.8 MVP points per game, a downright absurd number. In second place in 2025 was Denis Bouanga, with 70 points (1.96 per game) and Anders Dreyer, with 64 (1.52 per game).

With 5 games down in the MLS season it’s worth taking a look at the table. It’s likely to change, but there are some interesting early signs.

The Contenders:

In first place, as we all expected heading into the year, is Houston’s Guilherme. He has 12 points overall; 7 are from scoring goals (3 games with a goal plus a second in his first game), and additional 3 are from assists, and the last two are from G+ performances. His 2.87 MVP points per 90 puts him above Messi’s 2025, which is a remarkable number. At the same time we can expect that to slow down some. He only has 1.37 xG and 1.22 xA, so the return of 7 G+A through the start of the year represents a real hot streak.

Right behind him is Sam Surridge with 11 points. His 7 goals spread across three games give him 10 of those points, and the G+ performance point for the opener against New England makes 11. He hasn’t played as many minutes as Nashville are in CONCACAF Champions Cup, so his total per 96 is a staggering 3.31. Even if it cools down some (and it should; although he has 7 goals it’s from a still excellent 4.43 xG) with the team around him he’s likely to be in this conversation all the way to the end.

There are another four players at 11 points along with Surridge. Three of them are strikers; Petar Musa gets the most points from goals, Hugo Cuypers gets more points from G+, and Joao Klauss sits happily between the two. There is not an assist between the three but Anders Dreyer, also on 11 points, has 3 to go with his 3 goals. These players are doing slightly worse than Guilherme or Surridge on a per game basis, but are still at the top. Klauss’ position is a bit of a surprise as the Galaxy are not a great team, but he’s consistently making things happen for them.

Messi may be the GOAT, but he’s not the GOTSSF (greatest of the season so far) with just 10 points. His 2.34 points per 96 is still outstanding, and as he learns to gel with some of his new teammates may return to his typical performances. It’s remarkable that through 5 games he has yet to tally a single assist. He is tied with Anders Dreyer’s San Diego FC teammate Marcus Ingvartsen, who is showing a real improvement this season at 2.2 points per game, up from 0.83 in 2025. San Diego had questions around who could perform with Dreyer after it became clear Chucky Lozano was out of the picture. Ingvartsen being a MVP caliber player will go a lont way towards helping them accomplish their goals.

While Ingvartsen is having a real leap forward this season, some other big names have fallen off. Martin Ojeda was a dark horse MVP candidate last season with 55 points, good for 5th in the league. This season, he’s declined from 1.43 points per game to 0.81 as Orlando has struggled to do anything in the league. Cincinnati’s Evander was 4th in 2025 with 56 points (1.47 per game) but in 2026 has earned just a single point in 4 games. Both of these players have deeper issues with their teams as a whole, and could be out of the MVP picture entirely - something I predicted for Evander at the start of the year.

There are still a few big names that might enter the discussion by the end; James Rodriguez and Timo Werner have barely played, and Antoine Griezmann will not likely be a contender as a summer signing. Plus LAFC’s Bouanga and Son Heung Min are clearly among the best players in the league, but haven’t quite clicked in 2026 like they did in 2025. There’s still a lot of room for a shakeup in the table.

There’s no question that the MVP award is normally heading to and attacker, but there have been some midfield performances that are worth highlighting as well. Sebastian Berhalter has been on a tear this season with 8 MVP points - 4 for 2 goals, 2 for assists, and 2 performance based points. Onni Valakari is at 6 points for 3 goals and an assist (I see a lot of San Diego names on the list…). For defenders, Ender Echenique and Zavier Gozo lead with 6 and 5 respectively while Morris Duggan and Daniel Munie lead among center backs with 4 each.

Teams of the Season So Far:

Who are the best players in their position this season? This is using net Goals Added above average just at the position played (so if a player is splitting between wing and striker, they have to lead in one of those positions). It’s still early, so there’s a lot to shake out, but this is where things stand.

Some noteworthy points:

The DM group is interesting; all three are in some of the top teams in MLS this year. Tverskov has been the engine for the platonic ideal possession team, San Diego. Berhalter is absolutely making a statement heading into the World Cup - at this point it seems impossible to leave him off the squad. Keaton Parks has not lost a beat returning from his third blood clot related surgery, but the way he’s gotten his G+ is fascinating; he’s down on passing as he’s moved into higher risk areas on the pitch but has often operated as a second “striker” alongside Nico Fernandez in NYCFC’s strikerless attack.

The CMs, meanwhile, are all stuck on bad to woeful teams. Chris Durkin seems to have found his fit in St Louis, and Manu Garcia and Danley Jean Jacques are bright spots in pretty awful seasons. Some of this is the weird semantic differences between CM and DM, which are often quite small.

FC Dallas has found a cheat code along the wings, and Bernarnd Kamungo has taken over the LWB spot. While Kamungo initially came into the league quite strong, he faltered over the last two years. This position adjustment seems to be working for him.

San Jose puts two players on this list, and it’s not the ones you’d have expected coming into 2026. Jamar Ricketts has exploded this season, but it’s not a huge change from his normal game. He’s not really a progressive carrier but has a knack for receiving in dangerous spots and finding a killer ball. He’s averaging above 0.04 xA per final third pass, which is a pretty wild number. Preston Judd is the primary beneficiary; his small sample stats looked fantastic in 2025 and have carried into 2026. He might end up being the breakout striker of the year.

A lot of people tried to convince me that Almiron and Reus were washed heading into 2026, even though the numbers didn’t bear it out. Sorry, Almiron is not washed. He was actually decent in 2025 (worst xG underperformance in the whole league! Bet on regression!) and he’s been good in 2026 too. The problem is that the rest of Atlanta is terrible. Still, give the man his flowers. Reus is playing well, also; with him it always feels like the next injury is just around the corner.

We’re just about one sixth of the way through the season, and while it’s too early to really tell anything, the narratives are starting to congeal. What’s one thing you’ve noticed so far?