Preseason Prognostications
The MLS season starts this weekend - earlier, if you want to count CONCACAF Champions Cup. That means that the preseason predictions are getting turned out full force. Wherever you turn - whether that’s Soccerwise, or the MLSSoccer.com website, we get to see the experts opine on who they think the best teams will be. And luckily for them, the people keep track.
If there’s anything we know about MLS, it’s that parity means that we don’t know much at all. Teams will end up in totally different places, not least because the summer window activity can totally reshape teams from top to bottom. For example, last year the LA Galaxy were on average 7th by MLS media predictions, yet put together a stunning cup run. Supporter’s Shield winners Miami were picked to be 5th in the East.
This season, it seems like writers are confident in the top 3 teams in the West (Seattle, LAFC, LAG), as they have a standard deviation of less than one place in the rankings. After that, it gets crazy - Minnesota United are 4th, with an average place of 5.56, and then San Jose(!) with an average place of 7.76. What?! The next 6 teams have an average of 8-10, basically on top of each other. The bottom 4 teams are Portland, Colorado, Vancouver, and San Diego - 3 playoff teams in 2024 and an expansion team.
Sometimes I look at these predictions and feel like I’m going crazy. Ok, Vancouver switched managers and Portland lost their central DP (who they immediately replaced). But Colorado? What about their game model is not repeatable this year? They upgraded in key areas, didn’t lose anyone major (aside from Bombito but that had been done well before season’s end). To think that FC Dallas, who gutted their entire team, or San Jose, who have been perpetually terrible are going to just jump above them is inexplicable.
That’s not even touching the Eastern Conference. For some reason, everyone has a love affair with Chicago this season. Adding Gregg Berhalter and Jonathan Bamba has made everyone overlook terrible situations elsewhere on the team. Heading into 2025 Kellyn Acosta is the face of the team despite being legitimately one of the worst midfielders on his level of salary in the league. I’ve heard it said on one podcast or another that he might find the form he had under Berhalter with the National Team - but he wasn’t good with the National Team!
It’s so easy to get caught up in the shiny new thing. Transfers and new coaching hires are exciting, but they fail as often as they succeed. I think we’re seeing that with Atlanta in particular who are 3rd by voting. Could they be very, very good? Of course. Deila was a great manager with NYCFC, but not a tactical mastermind. Mostly, he was good at assembling a strong team and letting them get after it. Latte Lath and Almiron are huge signings (and Klich is a great one based on what was acquired at what cost). Still, Atlanta has swung big and disappointed me before.
The reality is that teams that are picked high are going to crash and burn. (SKC, for example, was picked 3rd heading into 2024 for no clear reason that I can figure out). Teams that are supposed to be dead in the water are going to surprise (Charlotte was 13th in 2024 preseason predictions, but made the playoffs in Dean Smith’s first season). It’s impossible to predict with any accuracy, but this year especially the preseason predictions seem particularly unmoored from reality.
I guess I’m going to have to put my predictions down, for posterity, if I’m going to criticize. Feel free to yell at me:
Eastern Conference:
Inter Miami CF
Atlanta United
Orlando City SC
Charlotte FC
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
Chicago Fire FC
DC United
Nashville SC
Toronto FC
New England Revolution
Western Conference:
Seattle Sounders FC
Minnesota United FC
LAFCLA Galaxy
Colorado Rapids
Houston Dynamo
Real Salt Lake
St. Louis CITY SC
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Portland Timbers
San Diego FC
Austin FC
FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City
Awards:
MVP: Probably Messi, let’s be real here - if not him then Denis Bouanga
Golden Boot: Bouanga
YPOTY: Fidel Barajas
GKOTY: Matt Freese