MLS Sack Watch 2026
Ask not for whom the bell tolls...
With two weeks played is it too early to speculate on who’s going to get fired? Probably! That doesn’t stop it from being fun. Using a predicted xPoints model we can dig into what results have been good, which have been poor, and what is likely for the future. So who’s on the hot seat?
Oscar Pareja
Seat Temperature: Toasty
Orlando has lost their first two games, both in ugly ways. They got jumped by the Red Bulls in the most surprising result of week 1, and then followed that up with a dreadful half and squandered 2-0 lead against Miami. They look both naive and lacking ideas, failing to generate much of anything against the Red Bulls and unable to close ranks defensively against Miami. The next 5 games are mostly difficult, with a slight reprieve in the middle against Montreal. Dropping points against Montreal at home could be a fireable offense - a win is mandatory. Orlando has faltered coming out of the gate, and Griezmann coming in is a much a risk for the manager as it is a boon for the team. If Griezmann doesn’t want Pareja (who’s already on thin ice).. it might be over for him.
Marco Donadel
Seat Temperature: Radiating Stove
The truth is that at no point is a CF Montreal manager not on Sack Watch. They are Schrödinger’s Managers, existing in a perpetually suspended state between hired and fired. The Saputos are erratic, difficult to deal with, and have far higher expectations of their squad than is reasonable. The reality is that the roster is very, very bad, and Donadel can’t will them to perform. The opening stretch is brutal. 5 games on the road, then the next three against Philadelphia and two New York teams. They might not hit double digit points until May. If they don’t, it won’t be Donadel’s fault, but he still might take the fall. At this point, though, is there anyone who actually wants the job?
Bradley Carnell
Seat Temperature: 3/4 of the way through a defrost cycle
Starting the season with two rough losses including in a rivalry at home. There’s a debate for how much a manager can do, but with two red cards for his players running their mouths at inopportune times, it reflects poorly on his discipline. There is no real reason this team shouldn’t be among the top in the East. Next week Bruce Arena brings a resurgent San Jose team who absolutely have the ability and mentality to win on the road in Philadelphia. If Carnell can’t get three points at home, the heat will crank up. From winning Coach of the Year in 2025 to potentially being out the door in 2026 - that’s the true Bradley Carnell experience.
Dean Smith
Seat Temperature: Steamy
Still likely safe but the 3-0 drubbing against what looks like a bad LA Galaxy side is a major concern. He’s made his reputation as a coach of tough defenses, but giving up 3 in a quarter of an hour to an attack that could best be described as “hapless” calls that into question. Tim Ream looks like he’s got one foot out the door already, just trying to hold on long enough to make a last World Cup. They don’t have an adequate replacement for Malanda. The offense just isn’t good enough to support a bad defense. They’re at -4.1 xGD on the season already. They do have a long home stretch coming up, but it includes Miami, Nashville, the Red Bulls, and Philadelphia. If it goes badly then Smith might not make it to the summer.
Phil Neville
Seat Temperature: Smoldering
He’s going to be on sack watch until the summer. If by some miracle he survives, he’s probably going to survive the year. Portland had an unexpectedly good performance against the Crew to open the season, but laid an egg on the road against Colorado. They’ve performed in line with expectations to start the year but meeting those expectations will still get him fired.
COTY Watch:
On a more positive note, these are the standout coaching performances after two weeks. This list is probably going to be more likely to evolve by the end of the year - after all, the other managers can get sacked at any time but the Coach of The Year award is only issue once.
Mikey Varas
San Diego continues to play gorgeous soccer and win games. They do have a very easy first part of the season, but as long as they hold serve they will be contenders in the West. Although San Diego hasn’t outperformed expectations over these first two games - yes, they have 6 points out of a predicted 3.6, but their xG has been a little under expected - hitting those expectations is still a very good thing. San Diego looks effortlessly in control of games, and as long as they don’t run into some of the defensive efficiency issues that hurt them last season they will be song the best in the league.
Michael Bradley
At the start of the season it absolutely looked like the Red Bulls were packing it in and headed for a rebuild. Instead, Bradley’s side has been led by the youth to put in two remarkable performances. Forsberg, Donkor, and Mehmeti look like the best midfield trio in MLS. Julian Hall is on fire. It does feel like the other shoe will drop at some point, and these players will get figured out with more tape on them. The Red Bulls also haven’t played anyone that looks any good. For the time being, though, Bradley looks like a genius.
Pascal Jansen
Listed as one of the most underrated coaches by The Athletic’s GM survey, has NYCFC punching above expectations already even without a striker. The relative difficulty of the next stretch is much lower, but NYCFC last season had trouble winning the easy ones. If they can continue to beat expectations over the next 10 games, they will have a good chance to be in the mix for the Shield by the summer. That will be a remarkable performance from a roster that is very good, but not elite.
Bruce Arena
A Bradley team and an Arena team at the top of the table? What year is it? Arena’s team was unlucky to miss the playoffs this year and was largely counted out in preseason. They’ve looked fantastic over the first two weeks, albeit against pretty bad teams with new managers. Just how good this San Jose side is will be revealed over the next three games; they visit Philadelphia, then take on the Sounders at home, then up to Vancouver, before returning home against San Jose. That’s three title contenders plus a team who really ought to be one. If the Earthquakes get 6 points out of the 4, then this team is for real and Arena might win his 5th Coach of the Year title.