I Think We're Overrating Inter Miami

If it bleeds, etc etc

Inter Miami are the defending MLS Cup Champions.

As such, they are being written about heading into preseason like they are the best team in the history of the league. The media does this frequently; they did it with the Columbus Crew in 2024, whose run to the CCL final was accompanied by countless statements that they were the “best MLS team ever”. They weren’t. We were probably spared that round of reporting last year because the Galaxy lost Puig. They also failed to win a game for months. That just means that impulse has been pent up and now everyone who covers the league is letting loose now that Miami looks to be making serious moves.

I’m going to be the contrarian. It’s not that I don’t think that Miami will be good; obviously there’s a ton of talent there. I just question how much better they can get from where they ended 2025.

Reason 1: They Lost a Lot Of Guys

I think that one of the big reasons that Miami will take a moderate step back is the loss of Alba and Busquets.

There’s a natural tendency to discount those two guys; they’re old, and maybe not as flashy as they used to be. At the same time they both were outrageously good in MLS, and more importantly had more than a decade of chemistry with Messi.

Alba added a significant amount of creation to Miami, on top of adding 7 goals (well above his xG). He was one of the best progressive passers at left back in the league. Sergio Reguilon is an exciting name, but Reguilon has 17 total assists in top 5 leagues over his entire career. When Alba left Barcelona, he had 74. Reguilon is coming to MLS because he isn’t good enough for a top 5 league. That was not the case with Alba. Reguilon has played under 300 minutes in the last calendar year, because he can’t break through.

Then there’s Busquets:

I think it’s fitting that a guy who was said to be invisible when you watched him is not being accounted for after he retired. There are maybe 2 or 3 better holding midfielders in MLS than Sergio Busquets at 37. David Ayala is not one of them. Ayala can do the defensive work, but he can’t progress like Busquets. He can’t create like Busquets. That means that Miami is losing two of their most prime ball progressors with no clear avenue to replace them.

(Also, Busquets fouled the shit out of people and didn’t get called for it. You can do that when you’re Sergio Busquets.)

Finally, there’s the whole Luis Suarez/German Berterame situation.

Again, I think there's a bit of public naïveté about Suarez’s contributions. In part it’s because he’s old, but also he sat for the stretch run of the playoffs where Miami had the most eyes on them. The 38 year old played 3355 minutes last season between MLS and Leagues Cup. That’s a remarkable amount. He added 18.43 xG on mostly high quality shots. He was unlucky to end up with just 13 goals. He’s also an extremely underrated creator with the ball at this feet (check those xA and progressive pass numbers).

German Berterame comes in with a ton of hype. He’s expensive, he’s dominated in Mexico, and other teams have tried to get him and failed. The thing is, he isn’t as good as Suarez - he’s just younger. With Monterrey, he managed 0.58 xG+xA per 96 minutes (per Wyscout) which is just over Suarez’s npxG alone. He is nowhere near the same level of creator as Suarez. He has reliably scored goals, sure, but he’s also been outdoing his xG over the last two years. Suarez hasn’t retired, but the writing is on the wall; he’s not the full time starter. On top of that, playing Berterame means moving Messi out of the false 9 position that won them the cup.

To me it’s pretty clear that for all the big buzz signings, Miami is getting worse at their most important positions.

Reason 2: I don’t think there’s a clear path to improvement

Let me let you in a bit to how I look at soccer team performance on a macro scale. The game itself is complicated, with a lot of moving parts, but I really distill it down to two ideas. The first is field tilt - how well does a team keep the ball in the opponent’s area and keep it out of their own area. The second is creative efficiency; how much effort/time/possession does a team expend to create chances, and how much do they force their opponents to expend. These two things are related; teams that control tilt (such as the Columbus Crew) tend to be much less efficient offensively and softer defensively. Teams that absorb pressure (think Minnesota United) tend to be much more efficient in the attacking third and hard to break down in their own area. The challenge for teams is to maximize their tilt without losing too much in the way of efficiency.

Inter Miami in 2025 was a team that had extremely high offensive efficiency (because they had really good chance creators) and fairly high in tilt (because they had good ball progressors, which both increases your own tilt and lowers your opponents). Defensively, they were fairly strong in tilt (again, see the impact of ball progressors) but a little weak in defensive efficiency. This is probably because all their money went to attackers.

The signings that we’ve seen are in large part designed to replace offensive production - to increase tilt and chance efficiency. Even if they are the improvements people claim they are, I just don’t see how much better Miami can get offensively. They’re scraping the elite already efficiency wise, and the tilt is pretty much where it can be for a team that doesn’t focus all that much on recirculating possession. So where is the improvement coming from?

It would have to come from the defense, which I am less certain about. Miami did sign center back Micael and right back Facundo Mura, which seem to be good if expensive signings, but I don’t see the floor rising high enough to make a difference at the top end. If the field tilt shifts significantly - which I think it will with the departure of Alba and Busquets - then the Miami defense will spend more time under attack, and those signings will really just maintain the status quo.

Reason 3: Time Itself

This one almost feels blasphemous, especially because Messi just completed his best season in MLS. In fact, he just completed the best single season in MLS history. He seems ageless, and capable of performing at a high level forever. At the same time, he won’t play forever and Father Time is undefeated.

The problem, as I see it, is fixture congestion. Miami is competing in MLS, Leagues Cup, and CONCACAF Champions Cup. It’s a World Cup year, and Messi is still a central fixture in the Argentine team. There is just too much soccer even for a demigod.

I think we will see significantly fewer MLS minutes and Leagues Cup minutes from Messi this season, and I think it will cost Miami both the Supporter’s Shield race and the Leagues Cup title. I do think that Miami should be the favorite for CONCACAF Champions Cup; this is probably the most important competition for them as it’s the one they haven’t won, and the ticket to the FIFA Club World Cup. They will do everything they can to secure this trophy. After the World Cup and CCC, the team will regroup, see where they stand, and decide how much they will invest in an MLS Cup push. I’m not sure they will have it in them.

Will Miami be good?

Absolutely. I don’t want to be too much of a doomsayer. I just don’t think they’ll be the best team in MLS over the course of the season.