God Help Me I'm Getting Excited About The World Cup

Probable a good sign(?)

To me, this was a pretty rough cycle from the get go.

The 2022 World Cup was a totally adequate outcome, the result of optimization ball that resulted in a competent if uninspiring USA team doing basically exactly what they were supposed to and flaming out in the group stage to a more competent if uninspiring Netherlands team.

The optimization ball, designed to maximize chances on one end while limiting them on the other, was team USA’s. It’s xG forward; the assumptions that drive xG are the same that drive the specific tactical approaches that defined Gregg’s 4-3-3. Like most algorithmically driven approaches it lacked much of a soul. (Although the overall approach was different, we saw the same thing with the USWNT who crushed teams on key numbers but still couldn’t make the game go their way in the 2023 World Cup.)

Nowhere was that more evident than the USA’s group stage exit in the 2024 Copa America. By the numbers, the USA was good. On the pitch, they were not. The team was undone by bete noir Panama, and then decided that the right path to facing Uruguay was to go toe-to-toe with them in terms of pure dawg. That worked! The USA had just as much fight and determination, and were relentless and physical in their duels, showing they could handle the grit of their opponent. They just forgot the soccer part of the equation.

Berhalter was fired; in a way, the Copa America performance did not deserve a firing, but in the end it was a just end to a tenure that extended two years past its expiry date. To replace him, the USA took a big swing and went for Mauricio Pochettino.

Enter Poch

Pochettino’s first year and change was weird. He had some bizarre callups (Matko Miljevic!) and his tactics tended to fizzle out. The team lost Concacaf Nations League to Panama and then the third place game to Canada. It did not seem like Poch knew what to do with this group, and unfortunately for him he didn’t have a lot of time to figure it out.

Then, around last year, something clicked. Maybe it was Alex Freeman’s doing; the big fullback who can run up and down the pitch, invert or overlap, and even be dangerous around the box suddenly unlocked some interesting wrinkles that stabilized the team. The switch to a 3 CB system (ok - not always 3CBs, depending on game state, but you understand what I mean) provided stability for the aging Tim Ream and the shakier young guys like Joe Scally and the aforementioned Freeman. He mostly sorted out the midfield.

Things were looking positive until March, when Poch seemed to lose his nerve and try a more conventional approach against Belgium and Portugal. The USMNT got smashed, the team looked terrible, and those were the last dates before the final squad (such as it was) was pulled together.

Relief, At Last - The Roster Roundup

Maybe it was the outcome of those two friendlies, maybe it was planned all along, but either way Poch went back to where he had success before. The roster he pulled together was about as good as could be expected from the USA pool, and he managed to avoid some clear pitfalls.

At goalkeeper, he went with the fairly obvious Matts Freese and Turner. Chris Brady was called in as the honorary third GK, who if all goes well should not see the field. Let’s hope so - while he’s a capable shot stopper, his overall play is a little chaotic and he makes big mistakes more than you’d like. The big debate is Freese vs Turner; the former is an elite shot stopper but plays soccer like a baby deer stumbling in its first moments on the earth. Freese is a capable but not inspiring shot stopper - he doesn’t have a Howard v Belgium in him - but he’s been playing in a possession system since he locked down the NYCFC starting role in the summer of 2023.

The defense is stacked; this makes sense as with 3 defenders on the back line plus two full backs in most situations, you want more bodies. There’s also a fair bit of flexibility; Freeman and Dest can move around throughout the team as needed. I’m not crazy about either Mark McKenzie or Miles Robinson being a guaranteed starter; both are shaky at best and Robinson is pretty far off the elite athleticism that earned him a spot on the 2022 team. The USA is really lacking a shutdown defensive presence (a la Aaron Long in 2022, who couldn’t do much in possession but would run down a train on a breakaway). The structure is set up to prevent that, but as legs get tired and spaces open up it concerns me. The biggest question is Chris Richards; clearly the best defender in the USA pool, also not clear if he can play at all.

The midfield is where things get interesting. Poch seems to want to play a midfield 4, but it’s not really a 4, because one of those is Christian Pulisic. Pulisic is clearly the USA’s best player and is written in pen. This system seems entirely designed to give him as much freedom as he wants, but gently pressure him to move away from deeper areas in the center of the pitch. By crowding the area with bodies (the other 3 midfielder, plus occasionally an inverting Dest or Freeman) it gives him the encouragement he needs to go make off ball runs where he is most dangerous.

That leaves the other three; one, an advanced playmaking type; the other, Tyler Adams; the third, a guy who does the jobs those two don’t do (we call that an 8). There’s a lot of debate about the best way to set up these three. Does McKennie make sense as the Adams partner behind a Reyna or Tillman? Or does it make more sense to have Sebastian Berhalter supporting Adams, and sitting behind McKennie? And what exactly is Roldan here to do?

For my money, I think the smart choice is with Berhalter and McKennie. There’s basically three reasons. First, Berhalter is the best progressive passer in our midfield group. It’s not flashy but he consistently finds the advanced midfielders between the lines and plays the smart ball. McKennie actually does this well too, but if you put him deeper then he’s not receiving those balls (and I want him receiving those balls).

Second, Berhalter is a set piece maestro. Without him, Pulisic takes the set pieces. Pulisic sucks at set pieces and is a great off ball runner. Keeping him out of the corner is smart.

Finally, Berhalter is a dog defensively. He runs hard, and has the fitness to keep going well past most players. Poch has called this out specifically, and the dead legs of the 2022 edition of the USMNT show just how important it is.

But what about the options not taken? After all, only 4 “midfielders” actually made it on to the roster and one of them is Cristian Roldan. I think Poch got it right - even though his hand was forced. Johnny Cardoso has been shambolic in a USA shirt. He did not deserve to be called up. Tanner Tessman is the soccer player version of cryptocurrency. Despite not having any real use case, people keep buying it. Even though it performs badly and doesn’t meet expectations, the value keeps going up. At some point someone is going to be left holding the Tessman bag.

The only real argument that exists is for Aidan Morris, who just finished a lovely season at Middlesbrough. I don’t think he’s a fantastic midfielder, but he’s got a high motor, is decent technically. If anything terrible happens to Tyler Adams, I feel way more positive about Morris taking over than I do Cristian Roldan.

What about Roldan, anyway? He’s probably the biggest lightning rod for negative Eurosnob opinions regarding MLS players. To some extent, it’s fair; he’s a very good MLS player but never really been a great one (career +0.03 G+ AA, and no seasons above +0.10 ever - but none below average either). At 30, this is definitely his last run with the USMNT for a World Cup. Somehow, he’s managed to go to two World Cups while better midfielders like Mark Delgado or Keaton Parks haven’t even made a friendly roster. I get the criticism. At the same time, he’s a player who does a lot of things at a high level and has a fantastic attitude. People love him. If there’s an emergency situation and we’re looking to the bench for a winger, a fullback, a midfielder, I’m fine with Roldan.

As for the attackers and wingers; it’s great. Really. I can’t complain much. We have 3 extremely good strikers in great form, a huge improvement from the 0 in 2022. Pulisic is red hot for the USA (and reports of his underperformance in Milan were exaggerated; the underlyings were fine). Weah has always shown out for the USA. Fullbacks Dest, Robinson, and Arfsten provide attacking threats from wide spaces. Dest in particular is making striker runs that we’ve almost never seen an American player do. Am I pleased that I might have to watch Brenden Aaronson? No. Do I think Zendejas over Luna was more of a personality pick than a quality pick? Yes. (And Zendejas getting big dogged in the Senegal game on a breakaway is a great example of why I’d have brought Luna). Still, the attacking players on this squad are genuinely good. Heck, I’m even excited about Reyna.

So in all that, the USMNT squad is in my opinion the strongest we’ve seen ever. The tactics make sense. The group is tough, but not overly so, and it’s at home. I can’t help it, I’ve got World Cup fever. It will only subside when we get eliminated by Morocco in the quarters.