I’ve been watching the USA play for decades, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game as good as the one the USMNT had against Paraguay. For all the excitement and anticipation going in - and as much as I felt optimistic this team had the juice - I did not consider the possibility that the USA would go out and dominate a very solid Paraguay side.
Paraguay is a tough defensive team. They allowed 10 goals in 18 games of qualifying. In their two home and away stands against Argentina and Brazil, they allowed just 3 goals. Yes, 2 of those games were at home, but two were not. The USA were able to score more in just 100 minutes than two of the best teams in the world were in 400.
In fact, Paraguay weren’t even that bad against the USA. I’ve seen xG outcomes all over the place, but roughly speaking the USA managed a 1.4-1.7 xG outcome despite having a staggering tilt (18.81% of the game spent in the opponent’s third under their possession, more than any USMNT game in the 2024 Copa America or 2022 World Cup). That’s a testament to both a little bit of wastefulness from the USA, but mostly Paraguay trying to follow a gameplan that had otherwise worked for them.
That plan was to force the USA to try to play through them in the mid block, and frustrate progression. The USA response was to go over the top, mixing in a variety of runs to confuse the back line, exploit space, and then work the ball centrally into dangerous positions.
Fluidity was the word of the day, as Pochettino showed the full potential of what had been hinted at over prior friendlies. Dest and Freeman both played roles that we haven’t always seen from them, and Pulisic was given a free role to cause chaos (and his splitting of not one but two double teams was what led to the opener). Balogun dropped deep, with his average touch being on the same horizontal plane as midfielders McKennie and Tillman. That didn’t limit him going forward as evident by his two goals in the first half. Balogun’s positioning created a 5 man midfield pentagon that overwhelmed Paraguay’s midfielders.
It was close to a perfect performance; by far the best that USMNT fans have ever gotten to see in a World Cup. It’s a fantastic start, but to really capture the nation the rest of the games are just as important.
What’s Coming Next
The Turkey-Australia game was a display of extremes; Turkey managed a shocking 29.23% field tilt (average teams are around 11%), yet came away totally empty handed. Australia bunkered deep and relied on the electric play of Nestory Irankunda to steal a first goal before icing the game with a long effort from Conor Metcalfe later in the second half.
Australia bunkered completely against Turkey and it worked. Turkey took 30 shots, but 16 of them were outside the box. Though they racked up 1.64 xG in open play, that number shrank to just 0.76 when looked at xG on target, showing their inability to create danger. Their best shot was an 86th minute free kick after the game was mostly settled.
Australia’s approach will be different to Paraguay’s, at least defensively. They will sit deeper, pack more players into the box, and trust the pace of their counter attack. The USA has not yet shown the ability to break down a team that puts so many players behind the ball. What they have shown is an idea of how to create disorganization through off ball movement. Gregg Berhalter spoke at length of a USMNT that could “disorganize teams with the ball” but I have long believed that the true breakdowns come with intelligent, creative off ball movement.
Australia’s counter threat is real, but there can be some optimism in that their primary danger man is the aforementioned Irankunda. The USA should be able to protect Ream on the left side, while leaving the heavier sprinting duty to Alex Freeman or potentially Tim Weah.
Meanwhile, the game against Turkey promises to be the biggest mystery. How will the USMNT respond to a team that wants to dominate the ball? Guler and Yildiz both absorbed massive amounts of the ball, and for the most part were productive with their touches but could not find a way through. Advancement could be decided by the time the game is played, so it could be an opportunity for the USA to try to open up the game against very good European opposition; in essence a preview of what a knockout round opponent could do.
If the USA can maintain their principles against a technically skilled team that wants to do roughly the same as them in possession, it will be a very good sign for the rest of the tournament. If they struggle to impose themselves on the game, or shift into a bunker against a superior opponent, it will signal a lack of confidence that many fans will take to heart.
The USA is off to a raucous start, but the first group game is the one that people remember the least when the tournament is over. Where will the team go from here?