Club World Cup Group Stage Best XI
and some other thoughts about the competition
The first round of the Club World Cup has wrapped up. While there’s been plenty of drama of the off field variety (ICE, intense heat, Infantino doing Infantino things), for the most part the games have lived up to the billing and been exciting and well contested affairs.
I think the competition is a good thing, both in concept and (so far) in execution. My elevator pitch for the Club World Cup is that the current status quo locks every non-European club out of the de facto best club competition in the world. While I don’t think that latter title is being taken any time soon, a successful CWC opens the door to meaningful competition across global clubs, and allows teams in other confederations to aspire to being more than a big fish in a small pond. Yes, European clubs and fans hate the idea. When you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.
The Group Stage Best XI
Whenever I see Best XIs, I tend to have a couple pet peeves. First, teams are thrown together without any real thought to positions, so you end up with a bunch of ball dominant players that look the best because they’re the most visible. That’s not how teams are constructed in real life. Making a Best XI should mean making tough choices, not just throwing 3 10s into your midfield and calling it good.
Second is that they’re often a bit arbitrary. For this selection, I used as much objective data as possible (found in my dashboards). I also did try to fold in some contextual understanding while thinking about what it means to build a real team out of the best players.
Finally, team performance and individual performance are closely linked. At the same time, players who perform well while being on a team that totally dominates the opposition are not inherently more deserving of acclaim than players who battle against overwhelming odds, even if the former might have better numbers. Consider, of course, the Bayern Munich side that overwhelmed Auckland City - how do you compare their numbers to more evenly matched sides?
These are my selections for the best players of the opening stage:
Goalkeeper: Yassine Bounou, Al Hilal
Bounou isn’t the goalkeeper to prevent the most goals - that’s Oscar Ustari of Miami - but he has the best record against xG. He also saved a penalty against Real Madrid that secured the point that meant advancement out of the group stage.
Center Backs: Alexander Barboza, Botafogo and Dean Huijsen, Real Madrid
Generally, in a center back pair has a one player focused on being more reserved, playing the ball, and one who is more focused on making active defensive plays. It’s been described as a “Dog and Cat” type of pairing, and I wanted to pick two CBs that fit the mold.
The Dog CB (or dawg if you prefer) is Alexander Barboza. He was everywhere as a defender, locking down Botafogo’s left side. He racked up the most high value defensive actions (>0.005 G+) and then mostly spent hist time on the ball time launching the ball into the opponent half, sometimes successfully but usually not.
His cat-like counterpart is Dean Huijsen, Real Madrid’s newest back line signing. Huijsen joined Los Merengues during the special transfer window for Club World Cup entrants, and has fit right in. His ability to distribute is remarkable. Annoyingly, he also plays on the left, but I am willing to bend a little bit to fit him into the lineup.
Fullbacks: Achraf Hakimi, PSG and Divine Lunga, Mamelodi Sundowns
Hakimi is a familiar name to just about anyone with a passing interest in the sport; long considered one of the best right backs in the world, he’s done no damage to that reputation in the tournament thus far. He led all fullbacks in the group stage in G+ Burden, reflecting his importance in making the UEFA champions’ attack run smoothly. He added to the scoring tally with a fast break goal against the Seattle Sounders as well.
Divine Lunga, meanwhile, is not so well known of a name. The 30 year old Zimbabwean left back has spent the bulk of his career in South Africa, making the jump from Zimbabwean side Chicken Inn FC at the age of 23. With Mamelodi Sundowns very much the underdog in their matches he provided significant defensive support while still contributing on the offensive end with +0.20 offensive G+ above the average FB.
Holding Midfielders: Richard Rios, Palmeiras, and Nicolo Barella, Inter Milan
Coming on the heels of European competition, it was an open question how seriously teams like Inter Milan would take the competition. On the one hand, no player wants to risk injury so close to the start of a new season. On the other hand, these players are natural competitors and view the tournament as another chance to stake their claim as players near the top of the game.
Nicolo Barella seems to have taken the later to heart. At prime age and coming off a season where he played 47 of the available 53 games between Serie A and Champions League, he probably earned a break. Despite that he put up 55 progressive actions and 1.7 xG+xA over just 265 minutes played. He was by far the highest burden player for Inter Milan, and was everywhere on the pitch for them.
Richard Rios, meanwhile, was a true triple threat for Palmeiras. He made multiple key interventions on the defensive end, while contributing in the buildup and progression phases. Finally, he got into the box multiple times and added 1.2 xG+xA over the course of his games. He maintained high progressive efficiency, requiring just 3.29 passes per progressive action vs the average of 6.23. His ability to perform multiple tasks at a high level deserves recognition.
Playmakers: Estêvão, Palmeiras; Lionel Messi, Inter Miami; Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Mamelodi Sundowns
It’s probably no accident that these three players do not come from world powers but rather teams that were not even favored to escape their groups (and two did not). These teams rely on their playmakers to take a much larger load than the powerhouses that can spread those duties across several handsomely paid attacking players.
Estêvão is my current pick for young player of the tournament. The 18 year old, soon to be a member of the Chelsea squad, is a terror on the dribble. He has the “take on” meter cranked up to 11, and was a constant threat to back lines due to his aggressive ball carrying. He converted his carrying to chances as well, with 1.7 xG+xA. Check out this map of his progressive carries and take ons:
Lucas Ribeiro Costa, meanwhile, may have turned his career around with his group stage performance. He bounced around Europe before ending up in South Africa, never really living up to his promise. He has found a home with Mamelodi Sundowns, becoming their most important player. Ribeiro Costa had the greatest overperformance of G+ above Burden, a stat that compares the amount of G+ generated from a given amount of G+ burden normed for the position played. He led all players in G+ above average, and also was 7th in xG+xA, accounting for about half of his team’s total xG through his contribution alone.
Of course, Messi stands alone. Although he is no longer the player he once was with Barcelona, there are games where the years roll away and he looks every bit the best player in the world. He was second in total progressive actions behind only Michael Olise, and did not have the benefit of playing Auckland City in putting up those numbers. He wasn’t perfect, and was even shut down at times, but there’s not a single player in the competition with the gravity and ability to shape a game that Messi still has at 38.
Striker: Igor Jesus, Botafogo
Igor Jesus wasn’t the most prolific striker in the tournament so far, with just 2 goals on 1.22 xG from 6 shots. That said, there wasn’t a single striker who put in the hard work like Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus comfortably led strikers in both high value interrupting actions as well as progressive receptions. It’s notable a lot of these progressive receptions aren’t in the box; although he’s more than happy to help out in the buildup to establish a beachhead in the attacking third, he’s not the one finishing off the chances for his Botafogo side. It’s a different approach to adding value that might work in an interesting way for the Nottingham Forest side he has already agreed to join.
Looking Ahead
As much as I’ve enjoyed the opening of the Club World Cup, I hope that it continues to entertain. The worst outcome would be that the European teams that advanced roll their first knockout round opposition, and the remainder of the tournament is a rehash of the Champions League this Spring. At the same time, if the games so far have demonstrated anything it’s that there is talent everywhere, and it takes just a little bit to pull off an upset. No matter what, it’s hard to look away.