Champagne Problems, Bud Light Beatdowns
Some observations from MLS Week One
Falling Stars
Probably the most surprising result to the casual MLS fan this weekend was San Diego’s win over the LA Galaxy. Expansion teams aren’t supposed to be good, and they certainly aren’t supposed to beat the defending champs. At the same time, anyone who has been following the Galaxy’s tumultuous offseason can’t be that surprised at the outcome.
The biggest loss is Riqui Puig, of course. Any sort of analytical attempt to look at his impact quickly runs out of room on the scale. If, for example, you were to look at the progressive actions completed above average (calculated in this case on a per game level vs players at the same position) Puig easily leads MLS over the last two years. In fact, not only does he lead the league, he’s higher than the next two players combined. Puig doesn’t necessarily light up the xG or xA charts in the same way, so he’s easier to miss, but there isn’t a single player more important to their team’s attack than he is. This was evident in just how much trouble the Galaxy’s only real fit star, Gabriel Pec, struggled to get on the ball in dangerous places.
The problem, then, is that you just can’t “rebuild him in the aggregate”. He progresses the ball more than entire teams. No rejiggering and reworking the midfield is going to create the same level of pitch control that he was able to generate single-handedly. Even if it were economically feasible, you also can’t go out and replace him with a similar player; what do you do in 2026 when Puig is back and you have two players who need incredibly high usage to function?
At the same time, the team just doesn’t function without Puig. That means the only remaining option is to change the game model. It’s hard to do that with a strong, functioning team; even harder with a team that gutted its midfield entirely. Everything that has happened with the roster hints at cap mismanagement; the trades of Mark Delgado and Gaston Brugman were lamentable if reasonable, but the sudden waiver of Sean Davis shows there are deeper issues.
What that means for the Galaxy is that there are big problems with the roster, and bigger problems with the flexibility that would normally be used to find solutions. Maybe the Galaxy can find the right balance in the midfield - there certainly were improvements as Elijah Wynder came on. Maybe Joseph Paintsil gets healthy and can provide a release valve when the team runs into trouble moving the ball. If they can’t find solutions, it might be a long season.
The Bruce:
A lot of stat nerds (not a pejorative) have a tendency to dislike Bruce Arena for his aversion to various advanced metrics other than the score (though I have a feeling he plays up his personal feelings to get a reaction). Still, I find it impossible not to be drawn to the guy. He just knows the game; his instincts are more often than not correct and he has an incredible eye for talent. There are guys who don’t need the analytics, who just intuit the underlying layers of the game, and Arena is one.
Case in point with San Jose’s smackdown of Real Salt Lake. Arena selected Beau Leroux and Jamar Ricketts, two unheralded players, over some better known names.(In fact Leroux was signed to the first team just 2 days before opening day.) Leroux had a great season in MLS Next Pro and was in fact on a list of loan targets I suggested to a USL Championship coach. Guess he wasn’t available due to first team commitments. Leroux impressed over 45 minutes, and assisted the opener to Ricketts.
Neither Chicho Arango or Josef Martinez could get on the scoreboard, and Arena turned to Ousseni Bouda on the bench. Bouda has had a tumultuous time in MLS since being drafted as part of the 2022 Generation Adidas class. He played just 30 MLS games over three seasons and scored a single MLS goal. His ability to stretch the back line paid off as he latched on to a Cristian Espinoza long ball for the third goal of the game, and he worked his way open in the box on the 4th - though he whiffed entirely and Vitor Costa cleaned up the result.
You can’t bet against Bruce - he knows the league, he knows the players, and he knows how to build. You can argue about his attitude, or his methods, or even the fact that we still don’t know what happened at the end in New England. You just can’t argue with his results. Will he turn San Jose from the laughingstock of the league to a playoff caliber team? It might be his toughest job yet, but if anyone can do it, it’s Bruce.