Can the Philadelphia Union Make the Playoffs?
It's less ridiculous than it might sound
I’m going to put my cards down before I get started. I hate the Philadelphia Union. I hate their racist/sexist GM (who they have not meaningfully punished for extensive bad behavior) and smug head coach. I hate their smug fans, I hate (most) of their players, I hate that they have had basically uninterrupted success for a very long time playing a style of soccer I find annoying and distasteful. I hate the fact that they made it so I have to watch Brenden Aaronson on the national team. I’m sure most involved with the team are wonderful people - it’s sports hate, not real hate - but I can’t stand the team, their fans, or their stupid song they play after goals. I even hate Phang.
Anyway, this season has been a delight. The Union somehow have found themselves going from winning the Supporter’s Shield (the second-most prized MLS trophy) to sitting at 7 points, an abject disaster. They moved on talented (and annoying) players like Jacob Glesnes and Tai Baribo without effectively replacing them, and as a result have absolutely collapsed. Despite being the consensus pick to finish 4th, they are currently in dead last and the leaders for the Wooden Spoon. Glorious.
There’s a classic beat in horror movies where the hero/heroine has apparently dispatched the threat, and everyone is taking a deep breath. We all know what happens next. In soccer, like the movies, the villain can be down but they are most certainly not out. This feels like the moment directly before the jump scare. Maybe it’s just prior trauma speaking but I have not shaken the feeling that the Philadelphia Union are coming back, and in a big way.
“What?!” I hear you say. “That’s impossible! They have 7 points! They’ve won just 1 game! How could this be?!”.
They’re not as bad as they look
There is so much out of the control of teams in soccer, and luck plays a huge role in how things shake out. Every season some teams will get very lucky and some teams will not. This year, the Union are absurdly unlucky. How unlucky? They are more than 12 points off their predicted points, determined by simply looking at the chances they’ve generated relative to their opponents.
Philadelphia at this point has a positive xGD. Better than Cincinnati. Better than New England. Better than their biggest rivals, NYCFC and the Red Bulls. That’s an encouraging sign in a season that has otherwise gone totally opposite plan. The underlyings are ok, and something to build on.
They could certainly get better
The Union are limping into the break, but they have the opportunity to reload through the summer and come back even stronger.
The team is actually fairly comfortable in the attack. Although they’re slightly below average in chance creation at 88.5 final third passes per xG created, they’re strong on field tilt (even better than last year!) and one of the best teams at starting their possessions in the final third. Being able to create transition chances has always been a big part of the Philadelphia game model, and if they start figuring that out again the chances are there. Alladoh and Damiani have both been pretty terrible, but Iloski has been solid and certainly showed he can score in bunches with San Diego.
Defensively, they’ve been bad. That’s unquestionable. Part of it is the natural tendencies of the game model. Even their Shield run last season featured a defensive efficiency of 63.1 final third passes per xGA, not far off their current season mark of 55. That 55 number is one of the worst in MLS this season, so anything they can do to stop the defensive bleeding is going to have a big impact on how the season plays out. Makhanya, the heir apparent as the defensive leader, was probably not ready to play without Glesnes to help. It will take time for him to develop chemistry with his new partners, either the currently injured Japhet Sery Larsen or the raw Geiner Martinez. (Philly should take a long hard look at why either player was preferred over youth super talent Neil Pierre, but since he’s on loan now that’s outside the scope of this article).
Now for the X factor that might change everything. Cavan Sullivan is genuinely looking like he might fulfill his promise. Frankly, you don’t ever want to rely on a 16 year old to be the best player on your team, but the reality is that he has been the best player on his team, in a league where everyone knows he is the best player on his team. I’ve always looked a little askance at the Cavan hype; for one, he’s a Philly player (gross). For another, it seems the people who hype him up have a tendency to wildly overstate the things he does (see the breathless coverage of a fairly normal U17 World Cup). Still, what he has been doing is undeniable. If he can continue to perform the way he has over the last stretch of starts, he is genuinely going to earn that move to Manchester City on his 18th birthday.
Can They Do the Impossible?
Let’s look at the math. In all likelihood, Philadelphia will need at least 40 points to be a reasonable contender for the play-in game. They have 7.
My initial projections had them at 55.1 points this season based on prior year’s performance. The team is tracking at roughly 88% of that in terms of expected points so far but with 12 points of further underperformance on the real table. If they do not get better, if they just follow their current xPPG without any deviation, they would wind up at 36 points. That’s not good enough to make the playoffs but certainly enough to make my collar a bit sweaty.
The Eastern conference is also just not that good. Philadelphia is not the only team to take a big step back; Inter Miami is not living up to outrageous predictions, Chicago has struggled relative to what many predicted, and the Revolution of all teams find themselves near the top of the East. There’s bound to be a lot more shuffling before all is said and done.
All it takes is 5 points of improvement to be a serious contender. Whether that’s from improving the players on the field, getting a little bit lucky, or just gelling together as a group - it’s not a huge mountain to climb. What if Cavan Sullivan continues to break out? He’s done well but not had anything close to the impact he had on the Union II. It’s not inconceivable that he could just keep climbing. What if Quinn Sullivan returns as a next level chance creator on the right, which he was before his injury? What if Iloski gets red hot like 2026? What if they fix the defense? None of these things are totally outside the realm of possibility. It would only take one or two to change the season for the Union entirely.
Now excuse me, I need to go take a shower after spending so much time praising the Union.