3 Thoughts for 3 Games In

A grab bag of general half baked musings

We’re three weeks into the season, most teams have played 3 games, and in recognition of that I’ve decided to post three things that have interested me in the young season so far.

Red Bulls go back to basics

Even though CF Montreal rudely dumped cold water all over the resurgent Red Bulls narrative, there are still signs that something is really different about this group. After suffering from a loss of identity over the last few years - abandoning some of the key concepts of “Energy Drink Soccer” to be a little bit more well rounded and comfortable with the ball - Michael Bradley has returned to the core that made the Red Bulls so consistent on the field.

2024 and 2025 marked a significant drop in the high press intensity that was the hallmark of the Red Bulls. From a final third PPDA of 12.5 in 2023, there was a massive drop to 21.0 in 2024 (bottom half of MLS, higher numbers = less intensity) before slightly recovering to 18.37 in 2025. Bradley has ramped up the high press even more than his Red Bulls II teams, with a final third PPDA of 12.38 and an overall PPDA of 3.85. The outcome of this has been a huge increase in final third possession starts. The Red Bulls lead MLS in final third possessions starts after placing 17th in 2025.

This is combined with an increased emphasis in holding possession. While older Red Bulls teams treated the ball like it was toxic, Bradley’s Red Bulls have held 61% of possession over the course of the year. That’s in large part down to Bradley’s willingness to play comfortable ball players like Adri Mehmeti, even though they are young. In fact, Bradley’s willingness to go to youth is encouraging; he knows these players well enough to throw them into tough situations and for the most part it has paid off. On the other hand, sometimes you get situations like Montreal’s goal where Mehmeti received a tough ball, lost it in front of the goal, and watched helplessly as it was slotted away.

Some general Red Bulls stats from 2026

If there’s any clear weakness in this team it’s that they are absolutely shaky when they don’t have the ball. The Red Bulls have the third worst defensive efficiency in MLS right now at 44.6 opponents passes in the final third per xGA, just behind Inter Miami and Atlanta United. Bradley’s RBNY II teams were not much better at 54.6. MLS is typically a much more defensively solid league than MLS Next Pro; the average number of final third passes per xG generated is 78 in MLS vs. 63 in MLS Next Pro. The latter is a much more transition heavy league where some defensive openness is acceptable; in MLS, Bradley will have to figure out how to patch the holes.

Morgan Guilavogui is the real deal

I don’t really trust Real Salt Lake DP signings. Pablo Mastroeni has built a team that consistently punches above its talent level, which is a real testament to his abilities as a manager, but at the same time every time RSL goes out and tries to get somebody I am frequently underwhelmed. Last year was particularly bad when they went out and got Rwan Cruz, who isn’t good, wasn’t good, and possibly hasn’t ever been good. Even when they get a decent DP (Arango, Kreilach, Savarino) there’s always some kind of weirdness and the player leaves in some sort of disappointing fashion.

All that to say, I was skeptical when they signed Morgan Guilavogui. A peak age journeyman who had bounced around in Europe without a lot to show for it seems like the exact kind of reach that RSL would make and later regret. His underlying numbers were solid for Lens on limited minutes, and still pretty good for St Pauli in a much bigger sample, but it was hard for me to overcome my initial anti-RSL bias.

I was wrong. Guilavogui looks great, and seems to be the exact player RSL is looking for. In MLS, a good team is going to have a couple true needle movers and a whole lot of runners around them. Mastroeni is great at finding and coaching runners, but the needle movers have not quite been up to par. In his first two games of 2026, Guilavogui has shown the ability to operate in the middle of the park while the maelstrom swirls around him. He’s made everyone on his team look better; young players like Hezarkhani and Gozo now get a much simpler job knowing that if they make the runs, there’s someone to find them. Sergi Solans looks like peak Suarez with Guilavogui giving him passes to run on to. It’s nice soccer.

I understand it’s very early; he’s only played 113 minutes in MLS, which is still not that many. The midfield still concerns me; you have Griffin Dillon, Luca Moisa, and Noel Caliskan picking up significant minutes without really being MLS standard. RSL got massacred on tilt vs Atlanta - a bad team with a terrible midfield - and lost the xG battle pretty handily (game state hand waving aside).

Still, my gut instinct is that the midfield will get fixed with injury recoveries (Eneli and Spierings in particular) and Guilavogui will continue to shine. If that’s the case, RSL could make a serious run at a home playoff spot in a pretty tough Western Conference (at least the top 4 teams).

Where did it go wrong with Junior Diouf?

Junior Diouf was a Mac Hermann trophy finalist, the second best player in college soccer per ASA’s draft board,, and the absolute best player who was leaving college. On top of that, he’s still 19. It seemed like he was destined for MLS success.

To the surprise of many, he did not sign the Generation Adidas contract that was required for him to join an MLS side with just one year out of high school. That instantly led to rumors of him going abroad. This wasn’t an unusual choice; many players have gone that route with variable levels of success. Nathan Opoku, who was signed by Leicester out of Syracuse before going on loan, is a recent example.

The rumors were that Diouf was going to Anderlecht, or that he was looking in the lower Bundesliga or 2.Bundesliga level. He unquestionably had the performance for it; there’s nothing guaranteed in this sport but his level of performance was such that it seemed like he would be a key piece somewhere. There just aren’t that many young players with that kind of tape.

Instead, after months of radio silence he ended up at SK Beveren, a club in the Belgian second division. Also, he’s not even initially with their first team; instead, he’s starting with the U21s. While there are some definite pros to the move - Beveren are smashing their league and almost certainly going to be promoted - it just seems like an odd move for a player that showed so much promise. Generation Adidas signings usually start around 80-90K per year, which is more than the regular starter at the Belgian second division level. Diouf is taking a pay cut to play on a reserve side for a team that wouldn’t be among the best in MLS. Why did this happen?

I’m not sure where the blame fully lies; maybe his agent thought he’d get better offers than he did when they declined the Generation Adidas offer. Maybe MLS didn’t offer enough, and could have offered more. Maybe an enterprising MLS side could have offered him an MLS Next Pro deal, brought him into the system, and promoted him after the season (they’d have to draft him so there’s risk there, but at least it gives a chance of keeping him). It’s a very strange start to what should be a very good career. We’ve seen Yan Diomande make the jump from US High School soccer to the biggest stage in Europe; I wouldn’t put it past Diouf if he can play to his potential. It’s a shame it couldn’t have happened here.